New quarterback rating system identifies NFL's top passers

New England veteran tops according to new quarterback rating system

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ESPN Stats & Information

The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of throws and what they mean for wins. It's built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on a play based on what he contributed.

Total QBR Basics

A quick primer on the fundamentals of Total Quarterback Rating:

Scoring: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.
Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.
Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play.
Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens in a game is factored into the score.

At the team level, identifying what wins games is not revolutionary: scoring points and not allowing points. In the 1980s, "The Hidden Game of Football" did some pioneering work on that topic and how yardage relates to points.

We went back and updated what that book did … then we went further. At the individual level, more detailed information about what quarterbacks do is really necessary. Brian Burke at AdvancedNFLStats.com has done very good work in advancing that effort, andFootballOutsiders.com has done some of this by charting data. And over the past three years, ESPN has charted football games in immense detail.

By putting all these ideas together and incorporating a division of credit, we have built a metric of quarterback value, the Total Quarterback Rating, either Total QBR or QBR for short.

FULL EXPLANATION

QBR Leaders: 2010 Season

In 2010, Tom Brady was clearly ahead of the field in QBR.

Rank	Season	QB	Team	Action Plays	QBR
1	2010	Tom Brady	NE	607	76.0
2	2010	Peyton Manning	IND	779	69.5
3	2010	Matt Ryan	ATL	709	68.6
4	2010	Aaron Rodgers	GB	627	67.9
5	2010	Michael Vick	PHI	547	66.6
6	2010	Drew Brees	NO	760	65.9
7	2010	Eli Manning	NYG	654	64.3
8	2010	Josh Freeman	TB	626	63.5
9	2010	Philip Rivers	SD	667	63.2
10	2010	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	500	59.8
11	2010	Tony Romo	DAL	251	58.1
12	2010	Joe Flacco	BAL	647	58.1
13	2010	Matt Schaub	HOU	678	57.8
14	2010	David Garrard	JAC	510	57.3
15	2010	Kerry Collins	TEN	342	56.0
16	2010	Matt Cassel	KC	566	51.2
17	2010	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	551	48.7
18	2010	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	619	47.4
19	2010	Carson Palmer	CIN	720	46.7
20	2010	Colt McCoy	CLE	290	46.6
21	2010	Kyle Orton	DEN	612	46.6
22	2010	Jon Kitna	DAL	409	46.1
23	2010	Shaun Hill	DET	499	44.8
24	2010	Jason Campbell	OAK	479	43.8
25	2010	Jay Cutler	CHI	596	42.6
26	2010	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	547	42.4
27	2010	Chad Henne	MIA	604	41.4
28	2010	Donovan McNabb	WAS	596	41.0
29	2010	Sam Bradford	STL	732	41.0
30	2010	Alex Smith	SF	426	40.0
31	2010	Derek Anderson	ARI	387	35.9
32	2010	Brett Favre	MIN	459	25.8
33	2010	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	397	11.7

Finally a useful and sensible rating system.   I was reading about this a little the other day at Football Outsiders the other day, it is important to note that they are one of the key contibutors to this new rating, as well as many other insane statistical analysis.

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