Last Week 10-3
Sunday Chargers at Jets - The Chargers present a bit of a challenge to me. They have the best early season record that they have had in years with a 4-1 record, but they have only played one team with a winning record and they lost. Despite playing losing teams for four of their games, they did not have a single convincing win. Their largest margin of victory was 10 points over the winless Dolphins. The Chargers have a better record than they normally do this time of year, but I am not sure they are a better team. With that being said they will face the Jets who barely beat out the Dolphins on MNF. The Jets will have a short week and just have not been playing well this season. The Jets have tried to air it out this season, but they rank 23rd in passing while dropping to 31st in rushing. Both teams defenses appear closely ranked, but the Chargers offense is producing much more. With that being said the Jets have only played one top ranked defense this year in the Ravens, and that didn't turn out too well. The Chargers do have to fly across country, but it is following their bye so it's a push. The edge goes to the Chargers in this matchup, as I just don't see the Jets putting enough points on the board. San Diego wins 24-17.
Seahawks at Cleveland - When the Seahawks travel to the Dog Pound they will be missing Marcus Trufant and possibly a few other key players. Namely Tarvaris Jackson and Max Unger. But I think they will matchup well against the Browns. Seattle has had trouble stopping the pass, and with the injury to Trufant it won't get any better. The good news is that Cleveland has not thrown the ball well this year as they are only ranked 18th in the league with 228.8 yards per game. If Colt McCoy can't find away to fix the passing game in a hurry, their chances don't look good. The Browns are already the 3rd worst rushing team in the league, and now Peyton Hillis is dealing with a hamstring injury that could sideline him. To make matters worse, they are facing the stingiest run defense in the NFL against the 'Hawks. Those birds are only allowing a league best 3.1 yards per carry this season, and all indications point to that trend continuing this week. Seahawks beat the Browns 24-13.
Falcons at Lions - The Lions just lost their first game since December 5th against an improved 49ers squad. The failed yet again to play well and it finally caught up to them. I think this could be a good thing for a young team, because they clearly have things they need to work on, as they keep leaving points on the field. The Falcons on the other hand are taking turns winning and losing each week. They are fighting to hang on in a tough NFC South, where a 3-3 record puts them in 3rd place. The Falcons are a team that many expected would run away with the South this year, but they have had some fatal flaws. Their defense has been good against the run, but not against the pass. Their offense has run the ball well, but they are not running it enough. The Falcons are a team that wins when they run the ball, and this could be a great time to get back to that strategy against a Lions team that just allowed San Francisco to rack up over 200 yards rushing. The Lions have some things to look forward too as well. They don't have to play the Falcons in the Georgia Dome for one thing, and the Falcons have been terrible at protecting Matt Ryan this year. He has been hit 40 times and sacked 15 times already. If the Lions can force the Falcons to throw early, Matt Ryan could spend a lot of time on the turf. I expect the Lions to get an early lead, and the Falcons to drift away from the running game as they have done multiple times this year. When this happens the Falcons will struggle against the Lions 6th ranked pass defense. Lions win a tough game before the bye, 30-24.
Bears at Buccaneers - Chicago has played pretty well the last two weeks and I think they play even better this week. Cutler continues his strong performances, Roy Williams is getting more involved in the offense, and Forte is doing everything he can to force them to "Pay Da Man!" I guess it is time to see if Freeman can carry this team. He got an excellent performance out of Ernest Graham, which I did not expect at all. If Graham can continue to play like that, the Bucs will have a chance against the Bears and their 22nd ranked run defense. Overall, I am not sure if the Bucs have an answer for Matt Forte and his 900 yards of total offense. Bears win on the road 23-20.
Broncos at Dolphins - The Dolphins continue to struggle in all phases of the game. Matt Moore turned in 41.8 passer rating on Monday Night Football. It didn't help that Brandon Marshall continues to drop passes. This team has lost confidence in themselves and with the staff. Changes at the top need to happen before this will get turned around. The Broncos have their own issues and are only 1 game better than the fish. The Broncos have flashes of hope though with young players like Eric Decker, Rahim Moore, and Von Miller. But ultimately the Broncos success this year is going to be fairly or unfairly placed on Tim Tebow's left arm. The Tebow era has began, and the Broncos started it by shipping away the teams best wide receiver. I like many, am intrigued to see what Tebow can do when he is given the reigns to just play. I think this situation worked out perfect for him with having the bye week to prepare, as well as facing one of the leagues leakiest pass defenses (29th). This game may not be pretty, but it should be exciting. The Broncos walk into the Dolphins house and take the victory, 27-10.
Redskins at Panthers - The fan base of the Panthers have something to cheer about. The Panthers are losing games, but they are competitive and exciting to watch. Cam Newton may or may not end up being the best quarterback from this draft class, but he has certainly energized a franchise that was lifeless a year ago. Steve Smith is having his best season in years and it is thanks to Newton and the wonderful job Ron Rivera is doing in Charlotte. However, they are still beat up at linebacker and it shows on the stat sheet. The Panthers have been run on 3rd most in the NFL, and they have likewise given up the 3rd most rushing first downs, and opposing backs average 4.8 yards per carry which ties them for 7th worst. Things won't get easier this week as the Skins come to town with their stretch run game. The Skins like to deploy the zone blocking scheme and get everyone moving horizontally letting the back stretch the play laterally until he finds a crease. This zone blocking scheme has long been in Shanahans arsenal and he is committed to it with an average of 27 attempts per game. Regardless of who plays QB, expect the Skins to run the ball 30 or more times this week, and grind out a close one 20-17.
Texans at Titans - I like what Mike Munchak has been doing in Tennessee as this team flies under the radar in the AFC South. Chris Johnson still hasn't gotten himself on track yet, but when he does this team will put up a fight till the end of the season. They will have an easier defense this week when they face team without Mario Williams. Rookie Brooks Reid should start opposite Connor Barwin. So I expect the Titans to move the ball much better this week as they rebound from their loss to the Steelers. Hasselbeck should have more time to throw and ultimately a better game. On the other hand the Texans will continue to working everything off run action, but Arian Foster is only averaging 4 yards per carry this season on 77 attempts. The matchup is not favorable as the Titans are tied for 7th in the NFL for lest yards per carry allowed with 3.8ypc. The last two years these teams have split, and it could happen again. I am picking the Titans to beat the short handed Texans 28-17.
Steelers at Cardinals - The Steelers are a reflection of their coach's no nonsense no excuses attitude. Tomlin doesn't care that they are old or injured, he is going to prepare his guys to punch you in the mouth. Something the Cardinals have gotten used to this season. The Cardinals are a team that needs to rebuild, they are just not a very good right now. It's why I still don't understand the Kevin Kolb trade. They gave up far more than they were going to receive. And they are not just one or two players away from returning to the Super Bowl. Among others, they have lost Rolle, Warner, Dansby, Breaston, Hightower, DRC, and Antonio Smith. These guys are going to have a rough time all year long and this old slow Steelers defense will be no exception. Steelers win big in Arizona, 37-16.
Chiefs at Raiders - If I asked you what QB in his last 3 games is 56 of 82 for 68%, while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and throwing 7 touchdowns you probably wouldn't say Matt Cassel. But that is exactly what he had done prior to their bye week. Cassel also found a way to connect with Dwayne Bowe for 4 touchdowns in that span. Now the Chiefs are still a team that is dealing with a lot of injuries, but they are not a push over like they were in weeks 1 and 2. Now they will face off against arch rival Oakland. The Raiders just lost Jason Campbell and newly acquired Carson Palmer is expected to be in the lineup, despite just joining the team. Fortunately for the Raiders, they will rely on their 2nd ranked rushing attack against a 21st ranked Chiefs run defense. I think the Chiefs can give the Raiders a scare, but I expect the absence of Eric Berry in the secondary to lead to at least one long run by Darren McFadden this week. Raiders slip by Chiefs 21-20.
Packers at Vikings - What a lucky guy, Christian Ponder gets to make his first NFL start against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers pass defense has not been very good this year and I think the loss of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Collins can not be stated enough. But this is still a Dom Capers defense that has BJ Raji, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. I expect Capers to have quite an assortment of nasty audibles and schemes devised to confuse the rookie. I don't think Frazier will risk exposing the young gun too much in this game and they will try to rely on Adrian Peterson, which is always the best strategy anyways. But the Packers to this point have just been in a league of their own and this game could get ugly when all is said and done. Rodgers leads the Pack to 7 - 0 as they beat the Vikes 31-13.
Rams at Cowboys - I really liked the Rams going after Brandon Lloyd just before the deadline. It was a smart move to finally get Bradford a legit number one receiver, and they did it for next to nothing. The 6th rounder than can get upgraded to a 5th if Lloyd averages 3 catches a game for the rest of the year seems pretty insignificant at this point. The Rams will need a heck of a lot more than Lloyd though, unless he plans on lining up at guard and tackle in St Louis. Bradford has been mauled as opposing defenses have sacked him 22 times and hit him 46 times, both worst in the league. It won't fix the Rams, but it is at least a small step in the right direction. The Cowboys will soundly beat Bradford and the Rams as they improve upon their 16 sacks. Also with all the injuries that have destoryed the Rams secondary, expect Romo to have a huge day. It's good for Tony to have a big game, because it's not like the media gives him much attention or anything.
Colts at Saints - This prime time game is not exactly a rematch of the Super Bowl 2 years ago. These Manning-less Colts are not playing well, and you can't blame it on Curtis Painter. I do think a lot of this was avoidable quite honestly. If the team had gone to Painter to start the year instead of this stupid Kerry Collins desperation move, the team would have at least been in some of the first 3 games and Painter would be further along in his development. This is a team that hasn't really had to face adversity like this before, and that rough start is something that I don't think they knew how to respond to. I think the Colts play hard again this week, but lose again. Saints win at home, 28-17.
Monday
Ravens at Jaguars - I don't understand why no one is talking about the Ravens. They have quietly crept into the top 3 in multiple power rankings and still no love. The Ravens are playing lights out football, and it all starts with the ageless wonder Ray Lewis. Lewis is 36 years old and playing in his 16th season with Baltimore. He leads a unit ranked 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 3rd respectively in the 4 major defensive rankings. Not to mention they finally have the offense behind them. They thought they did in the past, but it always fizzled out. This year after 5 games they are ranked 5th in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game. The Jaguars are going to get man handled on Monday night and the whole country will see the Ravens do it. After this week, the Ravens will be one of the most talked about teams in the league. Ravens roll 34-10.
Ravens at Jaguars - I don't understand why no one is talking about the Ravens. They have quietly crept into the top 3 in multiple power rankings and still no love. The Ravens are playing lights out football, and it all starts with the ageless wonder Ray Lewis. Lewis is 36 years old and playing in his 16th season with Baltimore. He leads a unit ranked 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 3rd respectively in the 4 major defensive rankings. Not to mention they finally have the offense behind them. They thought they did in the past, but it always fizzled out. This year after 5 games they are ranked 5th in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game. The Jaguars are going to get man handled on Monday night and the whole country will see the Ravens do it. After this week, the Ravens will be one of the most talked about teams in the league. Ravens roll 34-10.
Byes: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers
