The Lions came into the season with high expectations for their team, but it hung on one condition. That Matthew Stafford stayed healthy for the whole season. If Stafford could stay on the field it was a forgone conclusion that the Lions would have a dominant offense, and the defense would just have to try not to take on water too fast.
Well we are entering Week 8 of the NFL season and Lions fans have no reason to be upset, as the Lions are sitting at 5-2. However with those two losses coming back to back and at home, refrains of "the same old Lions" begin to surface. So what has happened? Was it a mirage all along? Did someone devise a nefarious scheme to eliminate
Calvin Johnson
from the game? Is Matthew Stafford just not that good?
Those are some of the many questions that have surfaced during typical fan and media panic mode when a team fails to perform repeatedly. Many national pundits and "analysts" alike have said the Lions were over achievers to begin with. That simply isn't the case, in all actuality it is quite the opposite.
I have been saying since Week 3, that the Lions are under achieving to this point. Even in their blow out victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Lions still have not put together a complete game. Each time they have been played they have left points on the field, week after week. Up until Week 5 our talent was able to overcome our lack of consistency, but even that train will come off the tracks if you don't fix the problem. So what is the problem?
Well first off, there isn't just one problem. The majority of the Lions struggles are on the offense's shoulders, but it is not as simple as that. Matthew Stafford is the center of the offense and if it sinks or swims, it will always be credited to him. That is part of the job description of playing quarterback in the NFL.
Matthew is up to the task, but he clearly has not played his best football to this point in the season. Yes he is completing 60.2% of his passes for 7.1 yards per clip. His touchdown to interception ratio is excellent at 4-1, but he is just ice cold right now. His accuracy has dipped below 50% in two games and the Lions failed to score 20 points two weeks in a row. Quite frankly the Lions have been down right terrible offensively, especially the last two weeks. Consider this, in the last two games Detroit is a combined 3 of 27 on third down conversions. That is not a typo, it is embarrassingly bad to convert only 11% of your third downs. That alone is enough to cause a team to lose. So the next question is what is happening.
I realize it comes down to execution, but beyond that why the failures? There are a few factors that are leading to Stafford's struggles. The offensive line has received it's fair share of blame in Detroit, and there is some justification for it. Detroit has allowed Stafford to be hit 38 times which is 7th worst in the NFL. To top that off he has been sacked 14 times. Stafford is a tough kid, but he knows that he is going to get pounded if he stands in the pocket and as the receivers uncover. Add this to the pressure he is facing to stay healthy for the first time in his career, and his mental clock is racing. You can see it in his eyes and his body language as he is rushing to get rid of the ball on most passing plays. When you speed up your clock, it rushes your footwork. We have seen him throw off his back foot so many times just this week alone against the Falcons.
Stafford has an unbelievable arm and he can rocket passes while rolling out or off his back foot from time to time, but this has to be the exception and not the rule. Stafford was not wildly inaccurate in this game as many would suggest, but he did have a handful of errant throws. He was off the mark for a good chunk of the game, and almost every time it can be linked to a poor base with his feet. When I studied the film I only saw 3 maybe 4 passes that were uncatchable. One was on a scramble where he launched it to Calvin deep, overthrowing him about 5 yards.
He did however have about 6 passes that I considered errant throws for an NFL caliber QB. Those are throws that either complete or incomplete, were not in a good location for the receiver. There were a few smoke routes to Burleson that where not thrown up field, preventing him from running after the catch. There were two passes to Calvin Johnson that were thrown slightly behind him instead of leading him on the route. One was a post in front of the free safety that could have gone for a big gain, but he had to break stride to reach back and make the catch. The second was even more devastating as he did not lead Calvin on a slant in the end zone. The Lions had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown, when Calvin clearly beat his man in the end zone. This stuff happens in the passing game, but it is happening too frequently in MoTown. On almost every single one of those throws you will find Stafford is not stepping into and driving his throws to the receiver. That is good news though. It means that when he plants, drives and follows through he actually has incredibly accurate ball placement.
The last part of the equation that I will discuss is the offensive play calling. Now before I go into any of that, I want to make it clear that regardless of the play called, the team must execute. With that disclaimer out there, the Lions staff has to do a better job of putting this offense in a position to succeed. A large factor in any teams conversion rate on 3rd down is the down and distance itself. It is not exactly rocket science to realize that 3rd and 7 is harder to convert than 3rd and 4. And it is more than just execution.
Fourteen times Stafford was faced with 2nd and 7 or more to go, and nine times he faced 3rd and 7 or more. How often do we hear analysts and announcers talk about having a "manageable" down and distance, and how it opens up the playbook. When a team has 2nd or 3rd and short situations they can do a lot of different things still expecting to have a reasonable chance of success. As opposed to running a draw play on 3rd and 8, hoping to catch the defense out of position. This makes the offense one dimensional and more predictable, and essentially makes the defenses job easier. A small example is the Falcons defensive line knew the Lions were forced to pass, and were able to effectively tip 3 passes in this game. Now most people would say that it all comes back to execution, or lack thereof on first and second down. But the truth of the matter is that Stafford was actually quite accurate on 1st downs, and other manageable down and distances. He just didn't get those opportunities very often.
To think that the offense is struggling this much, and they still are only 2 or 3 plays away from 7 and 0. It speaks volume for their overall talent and more importantly how well their defense is playing.
ran in the 2pt conversion. Sad part is that they took a time out just before the play was run, because they didn't like the look. It was after the timeout that he actually ran it in. This is just a microcosm of the organization as a whole. Expect someone to come in an clean house next year, and Andrew Luck to become the future. Giant's win easily at home, 24-6.
will put up points and the Jags won't be able to keep up. Texans 24-17.
has been exciting and has played well above most scouts ever could have imagined. 
has been impressive as well. His is 22 of 49 for 318 yards with 2 TDs so far this year. Those numbers are not that sexy, but the fact that he stood in the pocket and slung the rock was. Also when he was picked off by Woodson, he showed that he wasn't afraid to go right back. Ponder did not hesitate to pull the trigger the next time Woodson was in coverage. It was the right throw on the play and he threw a strike. This is good news for the Vikings fans, he will need to continue to grow but the early signs are promising. However this week it will not be about the QBs, but about Adrian Peterson. Peterson will be facing off against a Panthers team that has struggled to contain running backs all year, so AP should have a huge day. Vikings pick up their second win of the season in Charlotte, 28-20.
should have a good match up with Marcus Trufant out of the lineup. Additonally, I fully expect the Bengals defense to shut down the Seattle offense. That offense couldn't do anything against the Browns, and the Bengals defense is much better. Bengals keep surprising everyone, and move to 6-2 this week. Cincinnati wins 24-9.
